- Why First Half Adjustment Could Be an Opportunity
- The current decline is not a “collapse,” but a “liquidity adjustment.”
- Kevin Wash Issue Is It Really Bad For Bitcoin?
- You shouldn’t just look at QT: The real liquidity lies elsewhere
- Why You’re Talking About Bullish Turnover In Second Half
- Investor Perspective Checklist (Important In This Section)
- Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
- First-half adjustments are a process, not an end
- A good article to read together
Why First Half Adjustment Could Be an Opportunity
Many investors ask when the price of Bitcoin is adjusted.
“Why are they talking about Bitcoin bullish when it’s falling out like this?”
In conclusion, the decline in the market right now is not a structural collapse
It’s more of an “adjustment phase” caused by liquidity and positional issues.
And analysts say that the end of this adjustment could be the starting point for the bull market in the second half of the year.
In this article, the rationale for the bull market in the second half of the year of Bitcoin
Let’s summarize it into four pillars: policy, liquidity, position, and political schedule.
The current decline is not a “collapse,” but a “liquidity adjustment.”
The recent decline in Bitcoin is not an isolated phenomenon.
At the same time, the price of gold and silver has also plummeted. This is an important sign.
Overbought + Leveraged Chain Reaction
In this process, prices can quickly be pushed back regardless of fundamentals.
In other words, it’s not “I fell out because I failed”
There are so many positions that it’s close to being sorted out.
Kevin Wash Issue Is It Really Bad For Bitcoin?
The key issue that has caused market instability is
This was news about Fed Chairman candidate Kevin Walsh.
The mayor interpreted him as a “hard hawk.”
It sold Bitcoin and all of its risky assets at the same time.
But if you look at the past history, it’s hard to see it as just a hawk.
a person whose stance varied according to the regime
Even Paul Krugman, a Nobel laureate in economics
Wash was described as “a political figure rather than a consistent economist.”
That means,
It also means that it is unlikely to push for extreme austerity to the extent that it will break the market order.
You shouldn’t just look at QT: The real liquidity lies elsewhere
Many investors only think of the formula “quantitative tightening (QT) = Bitcoin fall.”
But real market liquidity moves much more complexly.
Key points to check
Even if the Federal Reserve doesn’t release more assets on a large scale,
It is a structure that can provide a buffer through banks and bond markets.
In other words, it is too early to conclude that it is a “scenario to lock the purse strings completely.”
Why You’re Talking About Bullish Turnover In Second Half
Bitcoin’s rationale for the bull market in the second half of the year
It’s not just a circuit of hope, it comes from schedules and structures.
Fed Chair Replacement (Before and After May)
Policy direction tends to become clear after replacement
U.S. midterm election schedule (November)
Possibility of leaving asset prices plummeting ↓
Historically, the second half of the year is under increasing pressure to ease policy
Bitcoin Internal Cycle
after the surge → tedious adjustment → Re-rising
The current position is close to the last adjustment
Investor Perspective Checklist (Important In This Section)
Indicators to check now
- Dollar Index (DXY)
- Bond rate volatility
- Bitcoin Open Interest (OI)
- Funding cost trend
- Changes in the market capitalization of stablecoins
Action to Avoid Now
- Leverage Expansion
- A line of news sells chase buying and fear
- Watering without a standard of hand-wringing
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
First-half adjustments are a process, not an end
In summary, it is as follows.
The first half of the year could lead to adjustments and tedious flows
However, this is not a structural decay signal
In the second half of the year, there is a possibility of a change of mood in terms of policy, politics, and cycle
After all, it’s not about timing, it’s about survival and position management
Bitcoin’s bull market in the second half of the year
It is likely that it will only be opened to those who have endured the current adjustment.
“This content has been created for the purpose of providing information,
“I do not recommend or recommend investments. I am responsible for all investments.”